The Data Behind Cheltenham Favourites’ Success Rate

Ian Harper
07 Mar 2025

Betting on favourites at the Cheltenham Festival is one of the most discussed topics among punters. While some believe backing the favourite is a reliable strategy, others argue that Cheltenham’s unpredictable nature makes it risky. So, how often do favourites actually win?

To answer this, we analyzed 10 years of Cheltenham Festival results, studying the performance of starting-price favourites across different race types and festival days. Here’s what the numbers reveal.

Do Favourites Win at Cheltenham?

Historically, the average strike rate for favourites at Cheltenham is around 30%, a “one-in-three” rule. However, this percentage fluctuates year by year.

Cheltenham Festival Favourite Win Rates

Average favourite win rate: ~30%.
2023: 11 out of 28 favourites won (~39%) – a strong year for punters.
2022: 12 winning favourites (43%) – one of the most favourable years for favourite backers.
2021 & 2020: 8 winning favourites (~29%) – slightly below average.
Lowest recent figure: 7 winning favourites (2015 & 2017).

Favourites by Race Type: Where Do They Perform Best?

Not all races are equal when it comes to favourite success rates. Some races have been historically punter-friendly, while others consistently produce shock results.

Championship Races (Grade 1s)

Cheltenham’s elite races, such as the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers’ Hurdle, and Gold Cup, have a higher-than-average favourite success rate (~40%).

The Champion Hurdle: One of the most predictable races, with favourites winning 9 of the last 12 renewals (75%).
The Cheltenham Gold Cup: A tougher test for favourites, with a historical win rate of ~34%.

Handicap Races: The Unpredictable Minefield

Cheltenham’s big-field handicaps are notoriously difficult for favourites. These races feature large, competitive fields and weight penalties, leading to more unexpected results.

Average win rate for favourites: 20-25%.
The Coral Cup: A prime example of handicap unpredictability—only 1 favourite has won in the last 11 years (~9%).

Novice & Other Races: Where Hype Plays a Role

Novice events, including the Arkle Challenge Trophy and Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, often feature well-backed, hyped-up horses from top stables.

The Arkle Challenge Trophy: A strong race for favourites, with 8 of the last 11 winners (73%) being market leaders.
The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle: One of the worst races for favourites—0 winners from the last 11 runnings (0%).

How Festival Day Impacts Favourites’ Chances

The day of the festival also affects favourite success rates, with clear trends emerging in recent years:

Day 1 (Tuesday) is the best for favourites (~35%), making it the most predictable day.
Day 4 (Friday, Gold Cup Day) is the least predictable (~21%), featuring tough Grade 1s and high-class handicaps.
Days 2 & 3 (Wednesday & Thursday) hover around the 30% average.

What Punters & Racing Analysts Need To Know

Backing favourites blindly is not a guaranteed strategy. While they win around one in three races, this varies dramatically by race type and festival day.
Championship Races (Grade 1s) offer the best chances for favourite backers, with success rates of 40% or more.
Handicaps are the riskiest, with favourites winning just 20-25% of the time.
Day 1 is the best day for favourites, while Day 4 is the hardest.

For punters looking to maximize their chances, studying race trends and past results is essential.