” width=”333″ height=”316″>Eurovision 2025 Betting Odds: Sweden Leads
- Ian Harper
- 06 May 2025
With the semi-finals of Eurovision 2025 now complete and the finalists confirmed, Sweden remains the bookmakers’ favourite at 1/1. Malta’s entry became the subject of a censorship debate before the competition, with the EBU (European Broadcasting Union) forcing a change of lyrics following a BBC complaint. Estonia’s entry, Tommy Cash, has caused some controversy in Italy, with some complaining that it plays on Italian stereotypes, leading to some in Italy calling for the entry to be disqualified.
Latest Eurovision 2025 Betting Odds
| Country | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 1/1 | 50.0% |
| Austria | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| France | 9/1 | 10.0% |
| Netherlands | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| Israel | 16/1 | 5.9% |
Sweden A Top Eurovision Contender
Sweden is currently the favourite to win Eurovision 2025 and didn’t disappoint in the demi finals, cruising comfortably into the final. Sweden’s entry is the trio KAJ, a comedy music group consisting of Swedish speakers from Finland. Their song, Bara bada bastu, has already achieved number one both in Sweden and their native Finland. The quirky sauna-themed song has topped Sweden’s singles chart for eight consecutive weeks. Swedish media have highlighted that since KAJ’s members hail from Finland’s Swedish-speaking community, it adds a unique cross-Nordic twist to the act.
Our expert says: “Sweden is a seven-time winner and has maintained their lead in the market, but with the odds for the Eurovision winner changing daily, don’t discount a late surge from Austria or France.”
Austria’s JJ Close Behind
Austria’s JJ has qualified for the final and remains the second favourite to win, with odds at 5/2. His entry Wasted Love is a power ballad blending opera-inspired vocals with electronic and pop elements. While it hasn’t matched the Swedish entry’s chart success, momentum has been building. The track debuted at No. 24 on Austria’s official singles chart, and betting odds have narrowed in recent days.
Austrian media have drawn comparisons to the country’s past Eurovision success, particularly Conchita Wurst’s 2014 victory. JJ’s soaring vocals and dramatic stage presence have led to talk that he could secure Austria’s third win.
With Wasted Love now in the final, Austria is firmly in the running, helped by his national TV appearances and strong showings at Eurovision pre-parties that built a strong fan following.
France vs the Netherlands
France and the Netherlands sit just behind the frontrunners in the betting odds. France’s Louane is already through to the final with Maman, a stripped-back ballad about family and loss that’s topped local streaming charts.
The Netherlands qualified from the semi-finals with Claude’s C’est La Vie, a bilingual pop track in French and English that’s gained traction with younger fans and dominated Dutch radio.
Louane brings star power and critical polish. Claude brings momentum and mass appeal. It’s a clear contrast: France’s introspection against the Netherlands’ energy.
Malta’s Eurovision Controversy
Malta’s Miriana Conte sparked controversy with her original entry Kant, which UK broadcasters flagged over the lyric “serving kant” due to its similarity to a British expletive. The BBC warned it couldn’t air the song under Ofcom rules.
Initially cleared by the EBU, the song was later rejected after a formal complaint. Conte was told to revise it while filming the music video. With under a week to go, she retitled it Serving, removed the word “kant,” and added a clip of BBC journalist Faisal Islam suggesting “serving brunch” on Newsnight to the music video.
Pink News reported the row boosted Conte’s status among LGBTQ+ fans, noting the song’s “self-empowerment,” “boldness,” and “queen energy.”On Instagram, Conte called the decision “shocking and disappointing” but wrote: “Diva NOT down.”
Malta had been a top-five contender before the changes, though bookmakers now suggest the controversy may have dented her winning chances, although it didn’t affect her chances of getting through to the final.
Italy-Inspired Acts Cause a Stir
Two finalists this year are performing songs that pay tribute to Italian culture, neither of them representing Italy.
Estonia’s Tommy Cash has drawn the most attention with Espresso Macchiato, a parody-laced entry filled with exaggerated Italian stereotypes, delivered in mock-operatic style and broken Italian. The track has sparked backlash in Italy, with calls for it to be banned. Italian senator Marco Centinaio called it offensive, while consumer group Codacons formally requested its disqualification.
Meanwhile, San Marino is leaning into Italian pride with DJ Gabry Ponte’s Tutta L’Italia. Ponte, born in Turin and best known for Blue (Da Ba Dee) with Eiffel 65, told EDMNOMAD: “I’m bringing Tutta L’Italia to the Eurovision stage with a performance that’s full of energy, passion and, of course, a lot of dancing.” Unlike Estonia, his tribute has faced no controversy, perhaps helped by the fact that he is, in fact, Italian.
